Frost and snow at German Christmas markets are most common in the south of the country and in Dresden. Evenings in the west are milder. Wet weather, though, is much the same almost everywhere, and a warm waterproof jacket will earn its keep at any market. The figures below describe evenings from 17:00 to 21:00 across the 35 seasons 1991–2025 according to the ERA5 reanalysis; this is climate, not a forecast for any particular evening.
Where frost and snow strike most often
Frost hits Munich on 38% of evenings, Ulm on 36% and Augsburg on 33%. Snowfall is rarer: 14% of evenings in Augsburg and Dresden, 12% in Munich. At least one snowy evening per season came Dresden's and Munich's way in 30 of the 35 seasons.
Where it is milder and wetter
Frankfurt gives you frost on just 19% of evenings and snowfall on 5%, and at least one snowy evening in 19 of the 35 seasons. Wet evenings (0.5 mm or more) run at 17–24% everywhere: 24% in Nuremberg and Stuttgart, 22% in Frankfurt, 17% in Halle. How evenings and seasons are counted is set out in the methodology.