Festival Weather Odds

Nuremberg Christkindlesmarkt: how cold and wet are the evenings?

Nuremberg Christkindlesmarkt (from the Friday before the first Sunday of Advent to 24 December (rule since 1973)): over 35 seasons from 1991 to 2025, 29% of market evenings (17:00–21:00) had frost, 24% were wet (≥ 0.5 mm) and 11% had snowfall; at least one snowy evening came in 29 of 35 seasons. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus).

How it works ↓

Data updated: 2 November 2026 · Sources, licences and data

Calculated 3 November 2026 · weather: ERA5 1991–2025 · edition dates checked 2 November 2026

29%evenings with frost
24%wet evenings (≥ 0.5 mm)
11%evenings with snowfall
29 / 35seasons with a snowy evening
2.4 °Caverage evening temperature

Evenings by week of the season

WeekFrostWetMean
124%18%2.6 °C
229%26%2.4 °C
333%21%2.1 °C
431%32%2.2 °C
520%20%3.7 °C

The Nuremberg Christkindlesmarkt opens on 27 November 2026 and on 26 November 2027, closing on 24 December both times. The weather shifts over the season: the middle of the run is usually frostier than the start, and damp weather arrives a little later.

Evenings by week of the season

In 2026 the market runs daily from 10:00 to 21:00, on 24 December until 14:00. Frost is most common in the third week, on 33% of evenings. The fourth week has the most wet evenings, 32%. If you are coming for the frosty air, aim for mid-season; if you hate rain, try not to land on the fourth week.

Frost, snow and extreme seasons

Across the whole season, frost comes on 29% of evenings: Nuremberg sits midway between Frankfurt (19%) and Munich (38%). The average evening temperature is 2.4 °C. Snow fell on at least one evening in 29 of the 35 seasons. The coldest season was 2010: an average of −1.8 °C, frost on 19 of 29 evenings, snowfall on 12. In 2015, by contrast, it was 6.6 °C with not a single frosty evening. This is the climate of 35 seasons from ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast (methodology).

Seasons

YearDatesFrostWetSnowfallMean
202528 November – 24 December1 / 273 / 270 / 274.0 °C
202429 November – 24 December4 / 267 / 262 / 263.2 °C
20231–24 December7 / 2410 / 242 / 243.5 °C
202225 November – 24 December11 / 306 / 302 / 301.6 °C
202126 November – 24 December5 / 298 / 294 / 292.2 °C
202027 November – 24 December4 / 288 / 282 / 282.6 °C
201929 November – 24 December5 / 268 / 261 / 264.0 °C
201830 November – 24 December4 / 2510 / 251 / 254.2 °C
20171–24 December5 / 247 / 248 / 242.4 °C
201625 November – 24 December13 / 302 / 301 / 301.3 °C
201527 November – 24 December0 / 285 / 281 / 286.6 °C
201428 November – 24 December2 / 278 / 270 / 274.7 °C
201329 November – 24 December2 / 264 / 264 / 263.2 °C
201230 November – 24 December11 / 258 / 256 / 250.9 °C
201125 November – 24 December3 / 3010 / 304 / 304.0 °C
201026 November – 24 December19 / 2913 / 2912 / 29−1.8 °C
200927 November – 24 December10 / 287 / 282 / 281.5 °C
200828 November – 24 December5 / 277 / 276 / 272.4 °C
200730 November – 24 December12 / 252 / 250 / 252.0 °C
20061–24 December1 / 244 / 240 / 244.8 °C
200525 November – 24 December11 / 307 / 305 / 301.0 °C
200426 November – 24 December13 / 293 / 293 / 290.8 °C
200328 November – 24 December10 / 274 / 273 / 272.0 °C
200229 November – 24 December11 / 264 / 260 / 261.3 °C
200130 November – 24 December14 / 256 / 254 / 25−0.3 °C
20001–24 December5 / 244 / 241 / 244.0 °C
199926 November – 24 December9 / 297 / 296 / 292.2 °C
199827 November – 24 December14 / 284 / 287 / 280.4 °C
199728 November – 24 December8 / 279 / 273 / 272.3 °C
199629 November – 24 December13 / 266 / 263 / 260.4 °C
19951–24 December15 / 245 / 244 / 240.4 °C
199425 November – 24 December3 / 306 / 302 / 304.1 °C
199326 November – 24 December6 / 2912 / 293 / 293.3 °C
199227 November – 24 December5 / 285 / 280 / 283.1 °C
199129 November – 24 December13 / 265 / 261 / 260.2 °C

How to read these numbers

„beginnt jeweils am Freitag vor dem ersten Adventssonntag und endet immer am 24“ — Wikipedia (de): Nürnberger Christkindlesmarkt

Dates and sources

Coordinates: 49.454, 11.077; ERA5 cell centred at 49.50, 11.00 (average ground height of the cell 375 m).

How we calculate