Notting Hill Carnival: what was the weather like at past editions?

At 13 of 33 editions of Notting Hill Carnival from 1991 to 2025 (39%), at least one festival day had rain (≥ 1 mm); a day of 30 °C or more came at 1 of 33 editions. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus), data to 2025.

Data updated: 2 November 2026 · Sources, licences and data

Calculated 3 November 2026 · weather: ERA5 1991–2025 · edition dates checked 2 November 2026

13 / 33editions with at least one rainy day

21%of festival days rainy

1 / 33editions with a day ≥ 30 °C

7 °C (2014)coldest night

0 mmmedian rain per edition

Climate, not a forecast: these are statistics of past weather, not a forecast for the next edition.

Climate of the usual dates

If the next edition falls on its usual dates (27–28 August), the weather on those calendar days in 1991–2025 gives these odds:

37% — chance of at least one rainy day
23% — share of rainy days
20 °C — average daily maximum
3% — chance of a day of 30 °C or more
0% — chance of a night below 8 °C

Average daily maximum on these dates: 19.7 °C in 1991–2005, 21.2 °C in 2011–2025.

Weather at past editions

editions with at least one rainy day · Rain, mm

Year	Dates	Rainy days	Rain	Max	Night min
2025	24–25 August	0 / 2	0 mm	26 °C	12 °C
2024	25–26 August	0 / 2	0 mm	22 °C	11 °C
2023	27–28 August	0 / 2	1 mm	19 °C	11 °C
2022	28–29 August	0 / 2	1 mm	22 °C	13 °C
2019	25–26 August	0 / 2	0 mm	31 °C	15 °C
2018	26–27 August	1 / 2	17 mm	19 °C	10 °C
2017	27–28 August	0 / 2	0 mm	26 °C	14 °C
2016	28–29 August	1 / 2	2 mm	22 °C	15 °C
2015	30–31 August	2 / 2	17 mm	19 °C	14 °C
2014	24–25 August	1 / 2	16 mm	18 °C	7 °C
2013	25–26 August	1 / 2	12 mm	24 °C	13 °C
2012	26–27 August	1 / 2	2 mm	20 °C	12 °C
2011	28–29 August	0 / 2	0 mm	18 °C	11 °C
2010	29–30 August	0 / 2	0 mm	18 °C	10 °C
2009	30–31 August	0 / 2	0 mm	25 °C	10 °C
2008	24–25 August	1 / 2	1 mm	21 °C	13 °C
2007	26–27 August	0 / 2	0 mm	22 °C	12 °C
2006	27–28 August	1 / 2	4 mm	21 °C	13 °C
2005	28–29 August	0 / 2	0 mm	24 °C	11 °C
2004	29–30 August	0 / 2	0 mm	18 °C	12 °C
2003	24–25 August	0 / 2	0 mm	23 °C	15 °C
2002	25–26 August	0 / 2	0 mm	20 °C	12 °C
2001	26–27 August	1 / 2	1 mm	21 °C	13 °C
2000	27–28 August	1 / 2	2 mm	20 °C	12 °C
1999	29–30 August	0 / 2	0 mm	23 °C	13 °C
1998	30–31 August	0 / 2	0 mm	20 °C	12 °C
1997	24–25 August	1 / 2	14 mm	23 °C	17 °C
1996	25–26 August	1 / 2	2 mm	19 °C	12 °C
1995	27–28 August	0 / 2	0 mm	18 °C	11 °C
1994	28–29 August	0 / 2	0 mm	20 °C	11 °C
1993	29–30 August	0 / 2	0 mm	20 °C	8 °C
1992	30–31 August	1 / 2	13 mm	16 °C	8 °C
1991	25–26 August	0 / 2	0 mm	24 °C	14 °C

How to read these numbers

ERA5 is a reanalysis on a 0.25° grid (about 25 km): it counts slightly more light-rain days than nearby weather stations (by about 5–7 percentage points) and gives daytime highs about 1–2.5 °C below station readings, so real hot days were hotter than shown here.
Edition window: the official programme days (main festival days, without camping or warm-up days before the start).
Dates of past editions follow the rule described in Wikipedia (en: Notting Hill Carnival): “over the August Bank Holiday weekend”. We applied it to 1991–2025, leaving out 2020–21 (cancelled or held differently).

Dates and sources

Coordinates: 51.517, -0.210; ERA5 cell centred at 51.50, -0.25 (average ground height of the cell 71 m).

Notting Hill Carnival: what was the weather like at past editions?

Climate of the usual dates

Weather at past editions

How to read these numbers

Dates and sources

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