Carnival of Binche: what was the weather like at past editions?
At 25 of 33 editions of Carnival of Binche from 1991 to 2025 (76%), at least one festival day had rain (≥ 1 mm); a day of 30 °C or more came at 0 of 33 editions. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus), data to 2025.
25 / 33editions with at least one rainy day
41%of festival days rainy
0 / 33editions with a day ≥ 30 °C
−8 °C (1991)coldest night
4 mmmedian rain per edition
Climate, not a forecast: these are statistics of past weather, not a forecast for the next edition.
Climate of the usual dates
If the next edition falls on its usual dates (19–21 February), the weather on those calendar days in 1991–2025 gives these odds:
- 69% — chance of at least one rainy day
- 42% — share of rainy days
- 7 °C — average daily maximum
- 0% — chance of a day of 30 °C or more
- 100% — chance of a night below 8 °C
Average daily maximum on these dates: 6.5 °C in 1991–2005, 8.5 °C in 2011–2025.
Weather at past editions
| Year | Dates | Rainy days | Rain | Max | Night min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–4 March | 0 / 3 | 0 mm | 15 °C | −2 °C |
| 2024 | 11–13 February | 3 / 3 | 8 mm | 10 °C | 2 °C |
| 2023 | 19–21 February | 1 / 3 | 2 mm | 10 °C | 4 °C |
| 2022 | 27 February – 1 March | 0 / 3 | 0 mm | 11 °C | 1 °C |
| 2019 | 3–5 March | 3 / 3 | 12 mm | 13 °C | 4 °C |
| 2018 | 11–13 February | 1 / 3 | 4 mm | 6 °C | −1 °C |
| 2017 | 26–28 February | 2 / 3 | 10 mm | 11 °C | 4 °C |
| 2016 | 7–9 February | 3 / 3 | 32 mm | 11 °C | 3 °C |
| 2015 | 15–17 February | 0 / 3 | 1 mm | 10 °C | −1 °C |
| 2014 | 2–4 March | 1 / 3 | 5 mm | 9 °C | 0 °C |
| 2013 | 10–12 February | 1 / 3 | 4 mm | 2 °C | −4 °C |
| 2012 | 19–21 February | 1 / 3 | 4 mm | 7 °C | −3 °C |
| 2011 | 6–8 March | 0 / 3 | 0 mm | 12 °C | −2 °C |
| 2010 | 14–16 February | 1 / 3 | 1 mm | 2 °C | −4 °C |
| 2009 | 22–24 February | 1 / 3 | 2 mm | 7 °C | 3 °C |
| 2008 | 3–5 February | 2 / 3 | 13 mm | 11 °C | 0 °C |
| 2007 | 18–20 February | 0 / 3 | 0 mm | 12 °C | 4 °C |
| 2006 | 26–28 February | 2 / 3 | 10 mm | 4 °C | −3 °C |
| 2005 | 6–8 February | 0 / 3 | 0 mm | 9 °C | −3 °C |
| 2004 | 22–24 February | 2 / 3 | 3 mm | 5 °C | −3 °C |
| 2003 | 2–4 March | 1 / 3 | 17 mm | 10 °C | 1 °C |
| 2002 | 10–12 February | 2 / 3 | 25 mm | 13 °C | 7 °C |
| 2001 | 25–27 February | 1 / 3 | 1 mm | 4 °C | −5 °C |
| 2000 | 5–7 March | 0 / 3 | 0 mm | 12 °C | −1 °C |
| 1999 | 14–16 February | 2 / 3 | 6 mm | 7 °C | −6 °C |
| 1998 | 22–24 February | 1 / 3 | 3 mm | 11 °C | 0 °C |
| 1997 | 9–11 February | 2 / 3 | 7 mm | 11 °C | 2 °C |
| 1996 | 18–20 February | 3 / 3 | 22 mm | 6 °C | −4 °C |
| 1995 | 26–28 February | 1 / 3 | 2 mm | 11 °C | −1 °C |
| 1994 | 13–15 February | 0 / 3 | 1 mm | 4 °C | −7 °C |
| 1993 | 21–23 February | 2 / 3 | 7 mm | 6 °C | −2 °C |
| 1992 | 1–3 March | 1 / 3 | 4 mm | 14 °C | 4 °C |
| 1991 | 10–12 February | 1 / 3 | 5 mm | 0 °C | −8 °C |
How to read these numbers
- ERA5 is a reanalysis on a 0.25° grid (about 25 km): it counts slightly more light-rain days than nearby weather stations (by about 5–7 percentage points) and gives daytime highs about 1–2.5 °C below station readings, so real hot days were hotter than shown here.
- Edition window: the official programme days (main festival days, without camping or warm-up days before the start).
- Dates of past editions follow the rule described in Wikipedia (fr: Carnaval de Binche): “se déroule tous les ans, du Dimanche Gras au Mardi gras”. We applied it to 1991–2025, leaving out 2020–21 (cancelled or held differently).
Dates and sources
Coordinates: 50.410, 4.165; ERA5 cell centred at 50.50, 4.25 (average ground height of the cell 121 m).